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dracken
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15:30:25 Sep 12 2009
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Illusionist Derren Brown claimed he was able to predict the lottery numbers just by combining the random guesses of a panel of members of the public.
On Wednesday 2.7 million viewers tuned in to Channel 4 to see Brown perform his latest trick.

Broadcasting from a secret studio location, Brown told viewers he had written his predictions on a line of balls, which he then revealed after watching the draw live on BBC1.

He said "that's a year of my life right there. I can't believe it", as he turned over the balls to reveal they were an exact match for the winning numbers: 2, 11, 23, 28, 35, 39.

On Friday night he told viewers that he used "a powerful beautiful secret that can only be achieved when we all put our heads together".

He gathered a panel of 24 people who wrote down their predictions after studying the last year's worth of numbers.

Then they added up all the guesses for each ball and divided it by 24 to get the average guess.

On the first go they only got one number right, on the second attempt they managed three and on the third they guessed four.

By the time of last week's draw they had honed their technique to get six correct guesses.

Brown claims that the predictions were correct because of the "wisdom of the crowd" theory which suggests that a large group of people making average guesses will come up with the correct figure as an average of all their attempts.

http://uk.tv.yahoo.com/12092009/19/illusionist-brown-lottery-trick.html

I saw this on TV last night, the lottery prediction was made on 9/9/09

I was amazed how these people worked together using automatic writing as one of the tools to get the prediction

The wisdom of the crowd was used before to win an ox at a raffle some time ago by a group of people, in which is where darren brown come up with the idea while eating a bowl of oxtail soup as stated on TV

What are your thoughts on this subject ?




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EthanolEmillee
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21:32:29 Sep 12 2009
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sounds possible but kind of like a load of crap.
kind of like the thing where if you have monkeys hitting random keys on a typewriter they'll eventually type shakespeare. it just seems like "luck" to me.



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AsphaltTears
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21:55:48 Sep 12 2009
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I had to go look and see where the idea came from and it is only two individuals and one publishing a book with that specific title in 2004. It would seem that a group putting their heads together might be more likely to come up with the right answers but unless I read James Surowiecki's book I would have no idea how he came up with the logic of the idea. It is a book I would have never heard of because I don't read The Wall Street Journal or Fortune or things like that. So, it appears to make sense in a way at a glance but yet it also seems pretty far fetched and if done enough you could probably get a right answer. It appears to be basically his thoughts on Collective Intelligence that someone put into practice and has seemed to be successful. Wonder if anyone else has tried any kind of system using these ideas? Do you know? Seems kinda like a fluke to me...shrugs.



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Dragondraconis
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02:44:13 Sep 13 2009
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nothing but bull!
the government sets up the numbers how they please.
expecially the instant lottery tickets you scratch off.
I have learn somthing by buying thoes for over 12
years of my life.If the scratch area has a play box that
tell you how many times..you got.this is how you know
that you have wone or lost without..scratching the rest off.If its 1X's it means you wone somthing no higher then 5 bucks.If its 2X or 3X..you must have wone a buck.
if the box ha any higher like 5X or 8X...then you wone nothing.If the cards have no doubler play areas..
(and i hate this)...you could win a buck or 2 bucks.
but your best buy is thoes teaser cards..where they trick your eyes...like you match 3 alike and win...right?
you have two 3,000 bucks...then you scrath off somthing
like 3 bucks...or 300,they trick you into thinking that your close...so you might buy another.
lottery numbers on TV,
let me tell you...sence i was 12 years old watching lotter numbers being played..you would think you would learn from how things work.
You know..that they switch the balls..so sometimes there is like seven number-4 balls in the mechiene to
get a number like 4446 or somthing.YOU know..that
they must open thoes balls to pt in weights so some numbers never go up to the top..and get showen.
i mean...DUH!
it's fixed...
we all know it.



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littleflames
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05:30:40 Sep 13 2009
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well i say life is just a bunch of patterns its like video games that loop they have a number of up and down or forward and backward moves and if you do this in the right pattern you win .
is true for cards and slots if you know the patterns then you will win big.
There is even patterns for words in a news paper that only have meaning to thos that know the pattern if someone else figures the patterns out they just change it.



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Andie
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08:16:52 Sep 13 2009
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Sounds strange to me too. I would say that I stand by those who say this is bull.
he takes the average of a crowds guess.
I rekon I would write a program in C++ that would do just this. But then IF you take into the math that its persons that are doing this and not machines you get the tickeling chanse that there are some kind of higher force involved. Im not sayin it is but I cant stop thinking there are. What if all people have some kind of power to predict the future and this expiriment brought out the best of everyone and poured it into a bowl :)



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shadowfever
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13:19:41 Sep 13 2009
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The "wisdom of the crowd" is often the stimulus for mobs. I can't say it is impossible but I tend to believe it is not.



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Artume
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00:10:51 Sep 14 2009
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Simple mathematics, the practice of equation. The group had one year to come up with a certain set of numbers. This is not impossible if a certain equation is used for the sequence of numbers to take place.

Instead of using computers, they used their own heads. Group stimulation and effort. Nothing wrong with this, but I would hardly call it "illusion." Just another show boater trying to keep the "integrity" of magic alive. Bloody sensationalists.



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IlLuminaria
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00:59:05 Sep 14 2009
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Hmm sounds like remote viewing is turning popular now.



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Artume
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06:16:07 Sep 14 2009
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Notice that they do not allude to the term itself.



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dabbler
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11:12:43 Sep 14 2009
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1. He is an illusionist. 2. Illist use patter. ( flattering patter in this case) 3. As drakens concise account mentions, the numbered balls were revealed after the drawing. 4. Makes me want to go into biz as a bookie, such naivity begs to be exploited.



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crimsonxxtears
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17:00:31 Sep 14 2009
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I honest have to agree with vvSoulshroudevv. They had a year to work together for one lottery ticket. It is simply combining their minds together.

I have to wonder though could the numbers been rigged in some way?



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dabbler
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17:52:51 Sep 14 2009
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It is an illusionist. I have seen variations of the same trick.

How stuck on "Mystic " can people be?

I bet you all think that when an illusionist tells the audience that an Indian ancient designed a box that allows him to saw a person in half, and then restore them you actually consider the "dynamics" of such an item.

I should invite you all to a seminar.. thats' it.. $10 a head, the more people.. the better the "energy will manifest.. come one.. come all.. tell a friend.. sheesh..

Watch this.. Ohhhh I pulled a scarf from the ether..

Fascinating ****

It says right there in the thread post, he turned the numbers over after the drawing!

Patter is slight of tongue, it is the pitch that draws in the crowd.

It flatters people to think they accomplished some mystic feat.

I have seen villagers in Manilia demonstrated illusions, the illusionist reveal the trick, and the next day, they see the same people waiting in lines paying a months wages to place their faith on a "mystic" that does a slight variation of the same trick. Does anyone watch Discovery Channel.. ? PBS?



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Artume
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06:38:12 Sep 15 2009
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I know what you are getting at ~Dab~, I do not believe the hype of it all. But as I had stated, it is not impossible to come up with a variation of numbers within a years time if the study was sufficiant. I remember a group of individuals with computer knowledge pulling off the same thing and actually winning the lottery.

It was a simple illusion, yes. Sell something to a crowd of 100 and at least 10 of them will believe every word.

By the by, welcome back.



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UpirLikhyj
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16:12:33 Sep 16 2009
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Seems to me the truth of the entire matter is summed up well within the first three words of the article: "Illusionist Derren Brown..."

This article isn't about a mathematician, a statistician, or any other like profession from which a legitimate and valid theory might have actually been formulated as claimed. Instead, what we have here is the performance of a new... illusion.

The smoking-gun evidence for same is found right in the article itself: "Brown told viewers he had written his predictions on a line of balls, which he then revealed after watching the draw live on BBC1." If the theory were legit and his demonstration were truly intended to prove its validity... why reveal his prediction only until after the lottery numbers were revealed? If his theory were real... he would have revealed the numbers beforehand.

Revealing his "prediction" only until after the actual drawing numbers were broadcast provided "Illusionist Derren Brown" the means by which he could rig the illusion beforehand so as to be able to have his own numbers match those of the drawing... plain and simple. From there it is simply a matter of rigging the appropriate illusion mechanics for revealing balls that were secretly printed with the right numbers the instant they were publicly revealed.


- Upir'





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UpirLikhyj
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16:39:08 Sep 16 2009
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My previous post should have concluded thusly: "From there it is simply a matter of rigging the appropriate illusion mechanics for revealing balls with the desired numbers."

Obviously, I have no idea exactly how this illusion was accomplished... and I don't have to. The point is that by waiting only until after the lottery numbers were publicly broadcast to then reveal his own, Mr. Brown reveals his "theory" to be yet another professional illusion.

And finally, should it need to be pointed out, if Mr. Brown's "theory" were legit, why didn't he go out and purchase a ticket with the winning numbers to begin with? Surely winning £2.4million would have well eclipsed whatever amount he might have earned or have otherwise been benefitted in performing his "trick." After all, what better way to truly impress the public than to publicly accept the check on television and reveal thereat just how he did it.


- Upir'



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IlLuminaria
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18:02:34 Sep 16 2009
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Because you can't intervine. Remote viewing is not something you can use out of advantage. You could get information about things you convey, doesn't mean you can get away with it.



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RomaMarieNightwing
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20:22:49 Sep 22 2009
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I haven't seen him do it, but I have seen Chris Angel do this by precognition and locked his numbers into a fault at a radio station prior the drawing and then had the radio station mamger pull the newspaper for that day and the numbers from the sealed fault.

Hey what the hell, I say try it and who knows, we could get rich!
better than just guessing or quick picking numbers .
so how does this work, add all the numbers, then divide by the persons involved: which would be one ending number, then what?
Use that to go down the line of possible numbers and circle them?



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Undervampsgaze
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23:07:48 Sep 22 2009
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I agree with MIllee about the randomness of it..



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Angelus
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00:25:07 Sep 23 2009
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.. Harry Houdini did it all. they're nothing new, are they??



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littleblueheart
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01:40:08 Sep 23 2009
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sounds interesting to me....
maybe its true...
maybe its not true...

we don't really know if we don't try right????

things that are impossible can be possible.... if we use our heads of course....


but we e=really don't know.....

for me....

it would be nice to won a lottery ticket so i can have lots of money... hehehehe... kidding aside...

they can use there ability to gather money and help poeple through poverty....



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xRoguex
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04:23:55 Sep 23 2009
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The human mind is totally uncharted territory. Illusionist or not, if we could put our minds together who knows what would could truly do.



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catseye
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09:16:04 Sep 23 2009
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its a simple conjouring trick.pick a card.
the crowd has no wisdom.its a stupid beast.only an individuall can think.most people conform to the herd so they become talking animals.



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hotmusic
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11:12:01 Sep 23 2009
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love the idea of collective power!! but only if collectively we make something happen as opposed to guessing together what might happen!!!

the idea here is that collectively we can better guess the outcome of a game of chance!!! well we can't it is what it is chance,,the probability does not change over time whatever the average that goes before might say!!!

a simple coin toss is chance regardless of how many heads have come up in a row its still 50 50 what happens next!!!

much better to collectively concentrate and make particular ball in a lottery fall as we collectively think of them!! now thats power of the crowd..
if only

LMAO think i used collectively enough there don't you ? lol and guess what,, never spelt one of them correctly till i spell checked them,, Duh



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hotmusic
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11:12:28 Sep 23 2009
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love the idea of collective power!! but only if collectively we make something happen as opposed to guessing together what might happen!!!

the idea here is that collectively we can better guess the outcome of a game of chance!!! well we can't it is what it is chance,,the probability does not change over time whatever the average that goes before might say!!!

a simple coin toss is chance regardless of how many heads have come up in a row its still 50 50 what happens next!!!

much better to collectively concentrate and make particular ball in a lottery fall as we collectively think of them!! now thats power of the crowd..
if only

LMAO think i used collectively enough there don't you ? lol and guess what,, never spelt one of them correctly till i spell checked them,, Duh



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hotmusic
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11:13:26 Sep 23 2009
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love the idea of collective power!! but only if collectively we make something happen as opposed to guessing together what might happen!!!

the idea here is that collectively we can better guess the outcome of a game of chance!!! well we can't it is what it is chance,,the probability does not change over time whatever the average that goes before might say!!!

a simple coin toss is chance regardless of how many heads have come up in a row its still 50 50 what happens next!!!

much better to collectively concentrate and make particular ball in a lottery fall as we collectively think of them!! now thats power of the crowd..
if only

LMAO think i used collectively enough there don't you ? lol and guess what,, never spelt one of them correctly till i spell checked them,, Duh



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shadowfever
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14:44:37 Sep 25 2009
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I'm afraid that when millions of people put their minds together they come up with "American Idol," "Dancing With The Stars," "Do You Want To Be A Millionaire," Paris Hilton, and other people famous for simply being famous. With the power of communications, the supposed power of the human mind, this is the best that the collective consciousness can do.



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bloodmother12208
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20:05:49 Sep 25 2009
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I don't know if I believe this. He had to have had something up his sleeve the whole time.



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Killbill4U
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01:30:08 Sep 26 2009
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cool stuff, groups do win more than individuals.
wish I had the right combo!



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xMagatsuhix
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08:14:48 Sep 26 2009
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I tend to think that it is the power of belief many people are easily lead to believe something they are told... so it would be understandable that this person can get 50% of people to believe him just because he said so... mass brainwashing lol



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gealachlass
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00:06:38 Sep 27 2009
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It's all a "slight of the hand". And if you get enough people some of them have to be right. The odds are in your favor. But fun to watch and try to figure it out.



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markus666
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16:51:28 Sep 27 2009
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Wisdom of the crowd. That mean that if we, as a whole, decide to come together, we can win the lottery. Cool. No good for the "lottery Mob". I don't think that the winning was real, something was edited for entertainment of the viewer. Is almost impossible that a normal brain can believe such of event.



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• • • • THIS THREAD IS CLOSED • • • •
•  Closed by TheRat on Sep 30 2010  •

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